Assorted Links

1. Is sectarian fighting inevitable in the Middle East? Thomas Friedman says no.

2. Big changes could be coming to Japan. Would not have guessed the average age of a Japanese farmer is seventy.

3. Interesting interview with Arata Fujiwara, the other so-called "indie" star in Japanese running.

4. Joseph Stiglizt believes, "inequality is not inevitable."

"If it is not the inexorable laws of economics that have led to America’s great divide, what is it? The straightforward answer: our policies and our politics. People get tired of hearing about Scandinavian success stories, but the fact of the matter is that Sweden, Finland and Norway have all succeeded in having about as much or faster growth in per capita incomes than the United States and with far greater equality."

5. More than two-thirds of American youths not ineligible for military service: And not all for reasons you might think.

The 30-day Novel Challenge

One of the hardest things I find about writing isn't starting but finishing (har-har ;)...). I struggle in other areas, too, but the lack of finishing is probably the most detrimental to my writing development. Elements like pacing, dialogue, plot, character-development, and grammar can all be practiced, honed, and improved. But without assembling drafts that have a beginning, middle, and end, we never really get a chance to practice the art and craft of story-telling broadly understood.

While I know little and less and about chess, I've heard that skilled players divide a match into opening- game, middle-game, and end-game. Some players are masters at opening-game and middle-game, but lose confidence when end-game arrives. Others are the opposite, growing stronger as the match develops.

 I think in writing I am best (but by no means great) at opening-game. I enjoy building a world and characters to populate it. I like following characters through their day, meeting their friends and seeing places they often visit--school, home, a local park; in short, getting to know them on a basic level of acquaintance. Excitement rises when their routine is disrupted, or some challenge comes into their lives requiring a bit of ingenuity and growth so solve. That can be good fun for a writer, if not always for the character.

As the story enters middle-game and end-game, I find the going harder. They're both different from open-game, so far as I can tell, and present different challenges. I struggle here for a number of reasons, but I suspect the most important is because I have so little experience working through them.

If all we study are openings, we'll never give ourselves the chance to sift through the complexities of middle and end.

For this reason, I decided I would give the National Novel Writing Month challenge a try. The idea of the challenge is to write 50,000-words of a novel during the 30-days of November. The time-frame is kept deliberately short as a way of keeping writers like me from bogging down early and throwing their drafts away. Quantity is stressed over quality, with the understanding that a finished draft is more useful than a polished opening-third of the same story one has been trying to tell for a decade. I agree with these premises, but having the itch to write at this moment, decided to start the 30-day challenge right away rather than wait until November.

 I'm about a week in now, and so far it's going well. The hardest part has been putting my "perfectionist" tendencies to the side, focusing instead on moving the story forward rather than correcting every minor detail in the opening sections; that can come later, when the middle-game and end-game have at least been given a first showing. Even if it turns out to be a bad showing, it will be worth the practice I expect (consider it an "investment in loss").

I'll try and keep the blog updated through the course of this project, which should conclude on 16 July. I admit the demands of writing a 50,000-word story in 30-days may limit what I have to say here, but I will try.

Wish me luck!

A Brief Review of Josh Waitzkin's, "The Art of Learning"

Today, I began re-reading a highly stimulating book by Josh Waitzkin entitled, "The Art of Learning" (2008).  Part biography and part treatise-on-pedagogy, the work is both well-written and rich with detail from the point of view of an observant, sensitive, and experienced individual competing at the highest levels of chess and tai chi chuan push-hands. In "The Art of Learning" Mr. Waitzkin manages to articulate a paradigm in which intuition and rote learning not only coexist, but nourish each other; what he calls "learning numbers to leave numbers," or integrating theoretical principals with instinctual, creative impulses.

Of equal interest is his attitude toward mastery, which focuses on process rather than innate ability. Indeed, very little is said about talent in this book, perhaps because the very idea of 'talent' is considered a distraction in the learning process--an abstract concept that weakens resolve in the face of adversity. The learner is at their best when attacking a challenge with a beginner's mind, focused and without ego.

There's much of interest in this book, and I would recommend it to anyone interested in learning, teaching, and/or performance psychology. "The Art of Learning," is one of the best treatments on the subject I've yet read.

For more on Josh, here's a youtube interview with him, and his wikipedia page for more general reading.

Assorted Links

-From Business Insider, Eric Barker's "Six Subtle Things Highly Productive People do Every Day."

For those in a hurry:

         1.) Manage Your Mood
         2.) Don’t Check Email in The Morning
         3.)Before You Try To Do It Faster, Ask Whether It Should Be Done At All
         4.) Focus Is Nothing More Than Eliminating Distractions
         5.) Have A Personal System
         6.) Define Your Goals The Night Before

- From The New York Times, Thomas Friedman's column for today: "Iraq's Best Hope"

         In short, "More American universities, please — not just drones."

-From The Economist: Are monkey's better stock-pickers than humans?

-From Early Retirement Extreme: "The Forest vs. the Trees"

"However, often the focus is on the trees. Instead of thinking about how a method fits in with other methods, there’s too much focus on the particular method. Take cold showers, for instance. It’s not about the temperature. When there’s too much focus on the method, it becomes about saving $X in isolation. Side-effects are no longer considered. When people pick and choose—I’ll do this, but not that—the whole is not considered and thus a lot of benefits aren’t realized."

Congratulations: Boston 2014

"The Blue Mountain" would like to congratulate 38-year-old Meb Keflezighi on his stirring victory (and new pb of 2:08:37) at yesterday's 2014 Boston Marathon. Well done, Meb :)

*And well done Ryan Hall, Nick Arciniaga, Craig Leon, Jason Hartmann, Josphat Boit, Jeffrey Eggelston, and the rest of the American runners in the field. According to this report by Robert Johnson of letsrun.com, the tactical decisions (orchestrated by Hall) of the American men during the second third of the race may have provided Meb with the gap he needed to secure the win. Classy team-work, men.

**Finally, congratulations to my friend Ali, who set a new pb of 2:57:25, and finished as the 100th woman in the very competitive field. Well done, Ali :)

So, what have you been doing?

Having posted almost nothing over the last few months, I began wondering if perhaps my time as a blogger was ending. I've heard it's something of an occupational hazard for bloggers to write themselves dry, to the point where they no longer have anything new to say. Toward the end of last year, that's about how I felt. Everything I wanted to say had been said, and that was that. 

Upon reflection, I've decided that's not quite right. Rather, I believe now that my creative interests simply shifted away from topics easily rendered into blog posts, toward those which are perhaps best treated by experience and life. For example, starting last year I became very interested in Financial Independence and frugal living, thanks in part to reading other blogs like Mr. Money Mustache, Early Retirement Extreme, Raptitude, and Jlcollinsnh. All four bloggers gave me a lot to puzzle over, and pushed me to think more critically about how I live and what my goals for future might be; in more ways than one, these gentlemen picked up where my college education left off. Very convenient. 

Thus inspired, I endeavored to begin applying this new thinking to my daily life, trying on ideas as one might try on clothes to see how they fit (though perhaps that is not the best metaphor). This exercise yielded a great deal of satisfaction as well as stress, but little that I could easily render into words; what I was attempting the bloggers listed above had already done, and their writings on the subject seemed far more useful than anything I could as yet put together. So for several months I wrote almost nothing on the blog. 

While challenging, these last few months have seen me learn a great many things. Perhaps more importantly, the thinking which I described above led to action in ways that surprised even me, and it is this action that I would like to discuss below. 

So, what have I been doing?

Learning new languages:

As I work alongside Spanish-speakers most days, I've taken to learning their language. This learning has come in many forms, from listening to them speak, to struggling through random things they post on Facebook. I've also employed more formal methods, for example using an old textbook given to me by a friend, and a highly stimulating website/app called Duolingo. If you've never tried Duolingo, I would highly recommend it. It's free, user-friendly, and provides instant feedback. 

Interestingly I've also been picking up bits of spoken Japanese of late. Partly this comes from rereading James Clavell's excellent novel "Shogun" (1975), but also from watching bits of old anime in the original with English sub-titles. I never realized how beautiful spoken Japanese could sound; indeed, there is a lyrical quality to it that I can't entirely describe in words; the best I can do is to describe its effect, that I smile despite myself listening to it, strange as that may sound. At any rate, while I have no intention as yet of wading into the complexities of the Japanese language, I do enjoy picking up bits of the language here and there.

Writing fiction:

While I haven't been writing much on the blog, I have been writing quite a bit in other place. In addition to a journal I keep, I've also begun writing fiction. This is a type of writing I've long enjoyed, having made attempts at it as far back as middle school. I say "attempts" because I almost never finish stories I begin. This is frustrating, but not entirely surprising. Many writers would probably agree that ideas and composition are not the same. What seems good in our heads may turn out terribly on paper; the reverse may also be true. I don't know why it happens this way, but it has to me time and again. My theory is that our story-telling and compositional skill is unequal to the ideas we imagine. This may be because most of us have a great deal of experience imagining hypothetical scenarios--for instance, what would my mother or friend think of this gift I made for them--but relatively little in constructing coherent, consistent arguments or narratives. Both have their utility, of course, but I expect far more situations in daily life demand hypothetical thought than compositional skill. Such as it is, most of our daily experience is perhaps not well suited to honing this ability to translate story-ideas into pieces of polished, attractive prose. Rather, it requires deliberate, sustained practice. That's what I've ended up doing these past few months.

So one day an idea for a story came to mind, and I began to write. The first draft got to about 6000 words before I put it into a junk file and began anew. The next draft reached about 8000 words before meeting a similar fate. At this point I decided that I didn't know some of the secondary characters especially well, so perhaps it would help if we started with stories involving them; prequels, so to speak, to the main tale I'd hoped to tell.

This proved a useful exercise, and led to the composition of one 6800 word prequel (to be rewritten at some point), and a second that is now about 11,300. It's been exciting work, bringing a story to life, and one of the most stimulating things I've ever done. My hope is to finish a trilogy of stories before moving on to something else. As with everything, we'll see.

Investing:

Like story-telling, I've long had a fascination with the stock market. As a youngster, I used to watch CNBC on market days, observing the indexes as they went up or down, and making guesses as to what the price of certain stocks might do on a given day. I didn't understand much back then, and I admit I don't understand much even now. But after sitting on the side-lines for well-nigh a decade or more, a few months ago I decided to wade into the world of stocks and finance.

I credit my friend Bob's father for pushing me over the edge, so to speak--him, and Mr. Money Mustache of course. Both helped me realize that investing in the stock market needn't be excessively speculative, or even outrageously exciting. Like all things, investing carries with it risk. The same is true by not investing. If you invest, you might lose your money; if you don't invest, your money will likely lose value. The former is due to depreciation, while the latter is due to inflation. Both are possible.

But how to invest? I've learned that this can be made into a terribly complicated question. What to buy, when to buy it, when to sell, how much to hold of this asset or that asset...it's mind-boggling, at least to simple folk like me. I'm thankful to have had some experienced people point me toward resources that would help me think about the problem of how to invest. This process is still in its infancy, but I will share what I did here and explain it as best I can.

First, I decided I would not start by purchasing shares of individual stocks. I've heard this is what many beginners do, and that the vast majority of them lose big doing it. I'm not certain if this is true, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was. The price of a stock is simple enough to tell--just check the ticker--but its relative value is more challenging to judge. Is it expensive? Is it cheap? Professionals have metrics and methods for thinking about these questions, but to my knowledge no one's conclusions always turn out profitable. I've also heard that our psychology can work against us where stocks are concerned--we fear loss more than we delight in gain, and as such we're likely to bail on a stock when its price goes down, even if the fundamental business and company are doing alright. It's a curious problem; one that can consume a mind if given the chance. Not my cup of tea.

Thankfully there are other ways to invest without buying individual companies. I ended up opening an account with Vanguard, and purchased shares of a fund called  Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Investor Shares, or VBINX for short. It's a balanced fund, which means it's composed of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. I liked this particular fund because it offers a wide exposure to both stocks and bonds, with good growth and relatively low volatility. A .24% expense ratio is also pretty good so far as balanced funds go, or so I've found. Now I've heard it's unwise to hold any significant position in bonds at my age since their growth potential is much lower than stocks, but for the moment I'm content to trade some growth for a less bumpy ride. I also like that VBINX automatically rebalances every year, which means that if say the stock position has appreciated to 63% of the fund, it will sell that 3% and use the money to buy more bonds, which will have depreciated to 37% . This rebalancing ensures one is buying low and selling high, which is one of the main ways to make money by investing. The other is through dividends, on which count VBINX currently yields about 1.73%. 

Investing has proven an interesting experience, and I find myself learning new things about it every day. It has forced me to think about trade-offs and risk in unique ways, and while I don't expect to make much money in the short term, I do think there's a reasonable chance of seeing gains in time. We shall see.

Conclusion:

So that is a sample of what I've been doing the past few months. They've been busy months, make no mistake, and stimulating ones too. Perhaps some of the experiences I've been having will generate new material for the blog, but that remains to be seen. Until then, I hope you're all doing well and learning new things.

Some thoughts on advice and irrationality

The following essay appeared in today's Wall Street Journal by Joe Queenan, entitled, "A Word of Advice...on Advice."

It's a light-hearted, humorous look at advice, and why it's usually useless and/or downright harmful. 

Mr. Queenan suggests this is because most advice--however well-meaning--is on some level thoughtless, unwanted, solicited  to make one's poor,easy decisions seem more rational, or simply to put off making any decision at all.

Consider this paragraph:

"Obviously, not all advice is equally useful. Advice untethered from a strategy for implementing it is feckless, merely annoying. It doesn't do any good to tell people with back problems to lose weight. They know that. They read that somewhere. Telling fat people that they should stop patronizing Mrs. Fields is like telling poor people to stop being poor. This is not really a lifestyle decision. This is the way things are."

In this case, the one receiving advice already knows the problem they face, and even have a general idea how to fix it. Repeating what they already know probably won't do any good.

Now consider this line:

"A similar dynamic is at work when one decides to make a sudden, life-altering and potentially disastrous career choice. You have already decided to do something self-destructive, but you want to feel good about it."

In this instance, the implication is that we seek advice because that is what people do when making big choices, even though in many cases we've already made it before asking. I'm rather reminded of a coffee-mug I saw once in the mall that read, "I've already made up my mind, don't confuse me with facts."

Reading Mr. Queenan's piece, my thoughts turned to an online course I took some time ago on the subject of Behavioral Economics--a field of study that seeks to understand better why people don't behave like perfectly rational economic decision-makers. It's a fascinating subject whose investigators have turned up all manner of interesting biases, short-cuts, and patterns of thought that have served the human race well at points in our history, but which form the root of many problems we experience today. These findings have even led some behavioral economists to see humans as predictably irrational, which is the title of Dan Ariely's 2008 book, and the subject of a book review by Mr. Money Mustache. 

This "irrationality" is not all bad; for instance, the "irrational" fear of flying has led to a much greater focus on improving flight-safety than statistics would deem warranted, which has in turn made flying--a statistically "safe" form of travel--even safer than before. 

Now let's explore a concept in Behavioral economics called "time inconsistency." An interesting finding at the root of this idea holds that humans tend to have an inconsistent measure of value within the context of time. To give a simple example, imagine if I offered to give you $10 today, or promised to give you $15 a month from now. Which would you take? Most people take the $10 now, even though by waiting a month they'd get 50% more money. Now imagine I offer to give you either $10 in a week, or $15 in a month; which would you take? Most people would take the $15. When faced with a decision between gaining something now or more of something later, we tend to weight the value of "now" more heavily. On the other hand, when both choices are offered in the future we tend to choose the option with the greatest value. In short, our scale of value tends to be inconsistent over time, varying to a great extent on how our choices are presented. This finding forms the basis of Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein's "Nudge" (2008), which explores the implications of behavioral economics in the realms of government and social policy.

Bringing the discussion back to Queenan's piece, I wonder if these "irrational" fears and time-inconsistencies of value play a role in rendering most advice useless and/or harmful. After all, perfectly rational beings would surely make all decisions with their best interests in mind, right? They wouldn't dither, procrastinate, or ignore wise-sounding advice if the data suggested the shouldn't. 

Yet humans clearly aren't perfectly rational, which suggests that advice isn't, and perhaps shouldn't pretend to be either--as Mr. Queenan puts it, "Asking for advice is a form of thinking out loud, except that it involves no thought." As such when we ask for advice, perhaps we're really seeking answers (or something) from both another person and ourselves. The problem may be that the other person does't realize this, and ends up excluding the inquirer from the discussion. Thus we get annoyed when the adviser says things we already know; ignore them when their advice fails to account for feelings of which only we are aware; or discount their advice entirely when it goes well because, as Queenan puts it, "Sooner or later, everyone wants to be a self-made man or woman." 

Taken together it's perhaps a little less surprising that humans so often ignore advice, or end up badly despite its good intentions.