On fortune

I sometimes wonder if we think we have greater control over events in our lives than is actually the case. Are our triumphs entirely the result of our skill? Are our tragedies entirely the result of our mistakes? I'm beginning to think that neither is wholly true; that on some level our successes and failures are the result of factors not fully within our control.

This can be disconcerting, but a healthy appreciation of "luck" or "fortune" is perhaps warranted. Sometimes the chips fall in one's favor, and sometimes they don't. It is natural but perhaps inaccurate when the outcome is favorable to attribute the success entirely to one's ability. We may flatter ourselves, in some cases things might have turned out differently.

Consider the following example. My last cross country race as a university student turned out to be my fastest as well. I ran 28:45 for 8km, eclipsing my old record by almost 10 seconds. At first I attributed the success to good execution of a race plan, as well as a solid peak. Further thought compelled me to realize the import of other factors that day. Chief among these was the weather, which that day was sunny, chilly, and quite dry. Coupled with the well-tended course and a positive attitude, the moment seemed ripe for a new personal record. Had the weather proved exceptionally hot or rainy, the outcome might have proved otherwise. As it was, the success of that race seems to have been due not only to good preparation and execution, but also favorable conditions.  

In another example, my last on-track 10km as a university student also proved my fastest. This was a triumph but also a set-back, since my 36:20 did not qualify me to run the conference meet, which required at least a 35:40. The goal that day was to qualify for the conference race, and in that at least I did not succeed. As in the previous example, preparation and execution were good in the lead-up to that race. I had run a number of strong tempo-runs following the end of indoor season, and about a month before the big race I ran a test 37:59 10km in Maryland, in which every mile was negative split. The test race gave  me confidence that I could maintain a harder pace, a confidence I'd been lacking ever since a disastrous 10km debut two years before. After some further endurance work, I spent the last few weeks before the big race working on speed. The results proved good I think, as high-lighted by an excellent 800m race the week before the 10km. Most importantly, the 800m race included a strong kick and a fast time (for me), which added to my confidence. All seemed set to make the attempt.

On the day of the big race, it rained. A lot. This was my first bit of bad luck. Yet all things considered, conditions remained favorable. The temperature was just about right, and the wind was not a factor. To my delight, there was another fellow in the race looking to run the same time, so I figured we could work together and make it happen for both of us. Unfortunately he developed an injury about 2km into the race and dropped out. This was my second bit of bad luck, because after that I was all alone, and what's more I didn't have any sense of the pace (I didn't wear a watch because of the rain).

The rain basically ceased during the race, but that could not prevent my third bit of bad luck. Even with no rain, the track remained quite wet, and each step gradually soaked my spikes and socks. I remember wondering at the time if I would develop a blister, but thankfully this did not occur. Rather the soggy spikes became heavy with moisture, contributing I think to my slowing during the crucial phase between 6 and 8 km. I ran the final 2km in about 7:15, (5:50/mile), or about what I needed to average for the whole race to achieve a qualifying mark.

Assessing the results of the race at that time revealed a mixed-back. On the one hand I'd run a massive pr (personal record), and as in the Fall managed to peak at the right moment. On the other I'd failed to achieve the  important goal of qualifying for the championship race.  This was a disappointment, and for some time after negatively colored my assessment of that particular race.
Later however, I began to appreciate the positives from that race. All things being equal, that and the cross country race described earlier were two of my best race efforts ever, and while both benefitted (or suffered) from conditions within the context, that did not detract from the elements within my immediate control. In short, they revealed the possibility of a positive result when good preparation is accompanied by good fortune. It doesn't always happen that way, but even good preparation accompanied by bad fortune has utility.

Thinking about those two races, I think they suggest the power and limitations of elements within our control. We can't control the weather, the strength of our competitors, or the outcome of the race. We can, however, manage our preparation, make decisions in the moment, and keep a positive attitude. The outcome is influenced by these factors, but ultimately independent of them; we can't make ourselves a champion, but we can put ourselves in a position favorable to that outcome.

I think this applies to many things in life, but much grief is experienced when we fail to account for chance and other factors outside our control which contribute to the final outcome of an event. Success and failures, it would seem, are neither the result of our ability or the result of chance alone, but of them both in some measure. Maybe. Something to ponder further perhaps.

Happy Thursday, friends :)